[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 22 10:30:50 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 20/2255UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 199/151
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: AR 12192 (S13E27) produced the one M-class flare and
a number of C-class flares. The region maintains its magnetic
and spot complexity. AR 12193 (N04W16) is declining while the
other two spot groups are stable. There is the possibility of
high solar activity from AR 12192. No CMEs observed in the limited
LASCO images. ACE data show the solar wind speed peaked at ~700
km/s at 1308 UT and has since declined to 550 km/s. The north-south
IMF range was +/-6 nT. The leading edge of a coronal hole is
located at ~36 degrees west and may become geo-effective late
22 Oct or 23 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22323222
Cocos Island 7 21223221
Darwin 10 32323222
Townsville 10 32323222
Learmonth 12 32224323
Alice Springs 10 22323322
Norfolk Island 8 12322232
Culgoora 10 22333222
Gingin 13 32323333
Camden 10 22333222
Canberra 8 22322222
Launceston 15 33433332
Hobart 11 23333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 28 22365532
Casey 28 46533333
Mawson 37 44434655
Davis 31 44545533
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 26 3344 4553
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled
23 Oct 16 Quiet to active
24 Oct 13 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Chance of active conditions late on 22 Oct due to recurrent
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35%
08-15 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-35% 00-05, 10-12, 22-23 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
20-30% 00-01 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressions of 15-30% 00-09 UT then near predicted
monthly values. Perth MUFs also depressed 15-25%
09-23 UT. Learmonth and Norfolk Is mostly near
predicted monthly values 00-23 UT. Night spread F
observed at Canberra, Hobart and Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Possible sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list