[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 14 issued 2334 UT on 20 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 21 10:34:38 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 0911UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.0 1616UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
M4.5 1634UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
M1.2 1859UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M1.7 2005UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M1.3 2029UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M1.2 2257UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 200/152 205/156
COMMENT: Four spot regions on the visible disc. AR 12192 (S13E29)
is stable but maintains its complex magnetic and spot configurations.
This region produced numerous C flares as well as the M flares
listed. AR 12193 (N04W05) grew in area and AR 12187 (S09W40)
was stable. New region located at S13E72. Possibility of high
solar activity from AR 12192. ACE data show the solar wind speed
range 500-600 km/s with the north-south IMF range +/-8 nT and
total field to 10 nT. No Earth directed CMEs observed. The leading
edge of a coronal hole is located at ~22 degrees west.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 22233333
Cocos Island 10 22222432
Darwin 13 23233333
Townsville 12 22233333
Learmonth 11 22223333
Alice Springs 12 22233333
Norfolk Island 11 23232332
Culgoora 12 22233333
Gingin 16 32234433
Camden 12 22233333
Canberra 12 22233333
Launceston 22 33444434
Hobart 14 23333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 42 33566552
Casey 22 45442333
Mawson 46 45533745
Davis 30 33552633
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 58 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2322 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 15 Quiet to active
22 Oct 11 Quiet to unsettled
23 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods on 21 Oct due to recurrent activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible ssudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced
25-50% 07-15, 21-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced
20-30% 02-05, 15-18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 25%
at Darwin 11-14, 22 UT. Depressions to 30% 22-23 UT
at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Some stations depressed to 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values. Possible depressions
to 30% at times.
22 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 19
October and is current for 20-21 Oct. Possible sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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