[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 14 issued 2334 UT on 19 Oct 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 20 10:34:33 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    0506UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 173/127


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. Region 
2192(S13E43) produced a long duration X1 flare which peaked at 
0503UT. A CME has not been confirmed from LASCO imagery, but 
given the location it is unlikely that this CME is earth directed. 
Region 2192 is the largest (> 1200 mils) and most complex (beta-gamma/Fkc), 
showed strong growth overnight and hold potential for further 
M class flares and a chance of an isolated X class flare during 
the forecast period. Background x-ray flux has increased. The 
CME associated with the 18 Oct filament eruption is not expected 
to impact Earth. Solar wind speeds are presently ~ 420km/s and 
Bz component ranged in the neutral +/-5nT. Light (~ 400km/s) 
solar wind speeds are expected for the next 48 hours. Elevated 
solar wind speed from a coronal hole may take effect day 3, 22 
Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223022
      Cocos Island         5   22222021
      Darwin               8   23223122
      Townsville           7   22223122
      Learmonth            8   32223022
      Alice Springs        7   22223022
      Norfolk Island       6   22112131
      Culgoora             7   22223022
      Gingin               8   32223122
      Camden               7   22223022
      Canberra             4   12212021
      Launceston          10   33323022
      Hobart               9   23323022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     8   22224121
      Casey               18   45432123
      Mawson              18   54333232
      Davis               22   35444331

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3322 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct    16    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over 
the Australian region. Conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled 20-21 Oct with possible isolated Active intervals 
should any Bz southward excursions occur. Elevated solar wind 
speed from a coronal hole may take effect day 3, 22 Oct. Level 
of disturbance will depend on direction and duration of the north-south 
IMF.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3 
days. Possible short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over most of 
the regions. Expected to continue at or slightly above median 
MUFs for next 2 days due to to high levels of ionising EUV flux. 
Some isolated depressions are possible during day 3, 22 October 
in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. There 
was a brief short-wave fadeout (SWF) recorded at some locations 
from the long duration X-class Flare from large spot group AR2192 
at ~0445UT on the 19th. Short wave fadeouts possible for the 
forecast period with a reasonable chance of M and isolated X 
flares from AR2192.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:    91700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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