[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 18 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during Oct 17. Newly numbered
region 2192(S13E68) produced several high level C-class flares.
The magnetic configuration of this region is not determined at
the time of report issue, however it appears large, complex and
may produce M-class events over the forecast period. All other
active regions on the visible disc remained mostly stable and
quiet over the last 24 hours. The background X ray flux remained
at C levels. There are no significant Earthward directed CMEs
in the available LASCO/SOHO images. The solar wind speed remained
around 430Km/s during Oct 17 and IMF Bz component fluctuating
+/-5nT about neutral with no significant sustained Bz-negative
periods. The present solar wind stream is expected to persist
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Cocos Island 4 22111111
Darwin 7 33111212
Townsville 6 23111122
Learmonth 4 22120111
Alice Springs 4 22120112
Norfolk Island 3 22010022
Culgoora 4 22111112
Gingin 5 22111122
Camden 5 22121112
Canberra 3 22110011
Launceston 6 23221112
Hobart 6 23221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 22121112
Casey 13 44322123
Mawson 21 34322255
Davis 12 333232--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2101 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the Australian
region. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days with the
chance of isolated Unsettled intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3
days. There is the chance for short-wave fadeouts over the forecast
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly normal at
all regions. With large active region 2192 rotating over the
SE limb, Solar EUV radiation is expected to continue to rise,
which should support normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation
conditions next three days. There is the chance for short-wave
fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 88700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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