[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 17 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 1303UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 160/114 170/124
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Moderate during Oct 16. The
largest flare of the day was an M4 event at 1303UT from a region
beyond the SE limb. The background X ray flux increased to C
level. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux increased to about 140. All
active regions currently on the visible disc remained mostly
stable and quiet over the last 24 hours. Isolated M-class events
are probable over the forecast period, mainly from the region
near the east limb that produced M flares last two days. There
are no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed remained
around 430Km/s during Oct 16 and IMF Bz component fluctuating
+/-5nT about neutral with no significant sustained Bz-negative
periods. The present solar wind stream is expected to persist
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Mostly Quiet.
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21122212
Cocos Island 4 11022112
Darwin 7 21122223
Townsville 7 22122322
Learmonth 6 20022303
Alice Springs 6 21122302
Norfolk Island 5 21011213
Culgoora 5 21122212
Gingin 5 20122203
Camden 5 21122212
Canberra 3 11011212
Launceston 6 22021312
Hobart 5 21021312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 20033201
Casey 13 44321223
Mawson 19 33122336
Davis 14 33232215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3311 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions at low to mid latitudes were
generally Quiet with an isolated Unsettled period at some stations.
Conditions were Quiet to Active at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions next three days with the chance of isolated
Unsettled intervals.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions for the next 3
days. There is the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts over
the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly normal all
regions. Solar EUV radiation is continuing to rise with developing
active sunspot regions, which should support normal to enhanced
ionospheric propagation conditions next three days. There is
the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list