[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 12 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
A filament liftoff from the northwest quadrant starting around
11/1930 UT does not appear to be Earth-directed, though a glancing
blow from the 10-Oct CME is possible 13-14 Oct. The solar wind
speed remained around 350 km/s. The total IMF varied between
4-9 nT, while the Bz component was mostly negative to -8 nT for
the first half of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be
low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 11233211
Cocos Island 5 11123210
Darwin 10 22234212
Townsville 9 21234211
Learmonth 9 21234211
Alice Springs 8 11234201
Norfolk Island 8 -1233212
Culgoora 7 11233211
Gingin 6 21223211
Camden 7 11233211
Canberra 4 11223100
Launceston 10 22334211
Hobart 6 12223201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 13443000
Casey 11 34323111
Mawson 14 34433211
Davis 10 23343100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3410 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active from
06-15 UT, most likely due to an extended period of Bz south,
and quiet at other times. Active levels were reached in the Antarctic.
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet 12-13 Oct, with some
unsettled periods on 14-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some mildly enhanced MUFS observed in southern Australia
and Niue Is, but elsewhere have returned to be closer to monthly
predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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