[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 13 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
three C-class flares from region 2187 (S10E73), the largest a
C2, peaking at 12/0515 UT. The solar wind speed declined from
~~350 km/s to ~320 km/s. The total IMF rose gradually to around
8 nT, while the Bz component varied mostly between +/-3 nT. Solar
activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11123111
Cocos Island 2 01102110
Darwin 4 11112122
Townsville 6 21123122
Learmonth 4 11113111
Alice Springs 5 11123012
Norfolk Island 5 31022012
Culgoora 5 21123111
Gingin 4 11123110
Camden 5 11123111
Canberra 3 10023001
Launceston 8 12234111
Hobart 6 11233111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 02144000
Casey 5 13212111
Mawson 7 21212232
Davis 5 21321120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2333 3101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the
Australian region over the last 24 hours, with unsettled to active
conditions from 09-15 UT. Mostly quiet conditions were observed
in the Antarctic. Conditions are expected to quiet to unsettled
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some enhanced daytime MUFs were observed at low latitudes,
but otherwise were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected
to be near monthly predicted values for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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