[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 11 10:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. A C3
X-ray flare peaking at 10/1647 UT was associated with an earlier
filament liftoff from the southwest quadrant which started around
10/1530 UT. From the imagery available, the CME does not appear
to be Earth-directed. The solar wind speed is around 350 km/s.
The total IMF declined to around 6 nT and the Bz component has
been mostly negative to -5 nT for the last 9 hours. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22100111
Cocos Island 2 22100011
Darwin 4 22101112
Townsville 3 22101111
Learmonth 3 22000212
Alice Springs 3 22000102
Norfolk Island 2 2200-011
Culgoora 2 22000111
Gingin 4 22100212
Camden 3 22100111
Canberra 1 21000001
Launceston 4 22101211
Hobart 2 22100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 13110110
Casey 11 44321112
Mawson 27 36312255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 2343 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 5 Quiet
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Periods at storm levels were observed
in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some enhanced MUFS are still evident in southern Australia
and Niue Is, but elsewhere have returned to be closer to monthly
predicted values. Similar conditions are expected for the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 47000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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