[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 9 10:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest event being a C2 flare at 08/1651 UT from region
2182 (S15W41). This region also showed signs of renewed growth.
The solar wind speed remained around 350 km/s. The IMF Bz component
varied between -8 and +5 nT, being mostly negative since 08 UT.
Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Cocos Island 7 22232112
Darwin 9 22232223
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 8 22232222
Alice Springs 8 22232222
Norfolk Island 6 11232212
Culgoora 8 22232222
Gingin 8 12232223
Camden 8 22232222
Canberra 7 32222212
Launceston 10 22232323
Hobart 9 22232322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 11144321
Casey 15 44333123
Mawson 12 23223243
Davis 7 2-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2300 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with unsettled conditions during
09-12 UT. Some active periods in the Antarctic. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the Australian region over the next
3 days,
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the
Southern Hemisphere on 8-Oct, and it is expected to remain enhanced
today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 115 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 15-30% for extended intervals during 8-Oct at most Australia
region stations. Conditions are expected to be near monthly predicted
values to enhanced throughout the region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 54500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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