[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 10 10:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0143UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0159UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0659UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Region 2182 (S15W56) produced several C-class flares and two
M1 flares, the larger of these peaking at 09/0158 UT. The solar
wind speed varied between 300-400 km/s. The total IMF remained
between 6-10 nT most of the UT day, while the Bz component had
a strong negative bias until around 22 UT. Solar activity is
expected to be low for the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class
events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 23322112
Cocos Island 7 23212122
Darwin 8 33222212
Townsville 7 23322111
Learmonth 7 23222112
Alice Springs 6 23222111
Norfolk Island 5 22222111
Culgoora 8 23322112
Gingin 8 32232122
Camden 9 23332112
Canberra 5 22321011
Launceston 11 23342122
Hobart 8 23332111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 24 23654300
Casey 11 44222212
Mawson 34 56523335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1112 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Periods at storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic. Quiet to unsettled conditions
will probably continue for the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the
Southern Hemisphere on 9-Oct, and it is expected to remain enhanced
today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 115 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 15-25% for extended intervals during 9-Oct at most Australia
region stations. Conditions are expected to be near monthly predicted
values to enhanced throughout the region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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