[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 8 10:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. A CME
was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 07/1829 UT. From the scant
detail available, it appears to be directed below the ecliptic.
The solar wind speed declined from ~400 km/s to ~350 km/s. The
IMF Bz component varied mostly between +/-4 nT. Solar activity
is expected to remain low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 22100001
Cocos Island 1 21100000
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 2 21100111
Learmonth 3 22100002
Alice Springs 3 22100002
Norfolk Island 1 -1000011
Culgoora 2 12100001
Gingin 1 21000001
Camden 2 12101001
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 2 22101001
Hobart 2 22001001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 22001000
Casey 8 34310012
Mawson 16 45311133
Davis 15 34311244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2200 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
10 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Active to minor storm periods
were observed in the Antarctic early in the UT day. Australian
region conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the
Southern Hemisphere on 7-Oct, and it is expected to remain enhanced
today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 135 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
30%
09 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
25%
10 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
25%
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 20-40% for extended intervals during 7-Oct at most Australia
region stations. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced throughout
the region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 82300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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