[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 7 10:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
C-class flares from regions 2181 (S13W57) and 2185 (S14E45).
The largest of these was a C3 from region 2185, peaking at 06/1707
UT. No CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed remained around
~~400km/s. The IMF Bz component varied mostly between +/-4 nT.
Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22111012
Cocos Island 2 22100001
Darwin 3 22111002
Townsville 4 22111022
Learmonth 3 22111002
Alice Springs 2 02010002
Norfolk Island 3 12001022
Culgoora 3 22011021
Gingin 4 32100002
Camden 4 22111022
Canberra 2 12001011
Launceston 6 23112022
Hobart 3 --112012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 12001011
Casey 10 34321013
Mawson 22 53222036
Davis 10 33322004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 5 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly quiet in the
Australian region over the last 24 hours, with a brief unsettled
period early in the UT day. Brief storm-level periods were observed
in the Antarctic. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
in the Australian region for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the
Southern Hemisphere on 6-Oct, and it is expected to remain enhanced
today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 20-40% for extended intervals during 6-Oct at most Australia
region stations. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced throughout
the region today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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