[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 6 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low on Oct 5 and it is expected
to be low during Oct 6-7. AR 2177 produced the largest flare
of the day, a C1.5 event peaking at 16:56 UT. The background
X ray flux is at the B6 level. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux has
declined to about 125. There are no Earthward directed CMEs.
The Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) which has been impacting
Earth since late Oct 3 has almost passed. The solar wind speed
reached about 480 km/s during early Oct 5 and it is presently
fluctuating near 420 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has declined
back to about 5-6 nT. The Bz component was mostly positive during
Oct 4-5.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 4 22211110
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 5 32211110
Alice Springs 6 2221----
Norfolk Island 4 22211110
Culgoora 4 22211111
Gingin 6 2221----
Camden 4 22211111
Canberra 2 12100010
Launceston 6 23211121
Hobart 4 22211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 1110----
Casey 42 4653----
Mawson 13 3332----
Davis 10 34321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 6 Quiet
07 Oct 6 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Oct 5 and they
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced in the
Southern Hemisphere on Oct 5, and it is expected to remain enhanced
today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 130 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 20-40% for extended intervals during Oct 5 at most Australia
region stations. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced throughout
the region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 98300 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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