[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 3 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.3 1901UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was high during Oct 2. AR
2172 produced an M1.5 flare peaking at 17:44 UT. Adjacent AR
2173 subsequently produced the largest flare of the day, an M7.3
event peaking at 19:02 UT. AR 2172 and AR 2173 are located close
to the western limb. GONG H alpha images show structures
lifting off in associated with these flares. We expect that SOHO
LASCO images will show a strong CME directed toward the ESE.
The CME is unlikely to have a strong Earthward directed component.
AR 2172 and 2173 will shortly rotate behind the western limb.
Most of the visible active regions are magnetically stable.
Hence the 48 hour outlook is for declining solar activity. GONG
H alpha images show a prominence on the SE limb. This feature
is probably associated with returning AR 2164 which may increase
visible activity next week. The solar wind speed has been fluctuating
in the approximate range 350 km/s to 420 km/s and it is presently
about 380 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been mostly in the
range 4 nT to 6 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating
mostly between -4 nT and +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12112211
Cocos Island 3 12111210
Darwin 6 22112222
Townsville 5 22112221
Learmonth 5 12211221
Alice Springs 5 12112212
Norfolk Island 3 22101111
Culgoora 4 12112211
Gingin 6 12211321
Camden 4 12112211
Canberra 3 12111111
Launceston 8 23222222
Hobart 6 23212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 12122211
Casey 16 35431222
Mawson 17 34322344
Davis 12 34332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3323 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 7 Quiet
05 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Oct 2. Conditions
may become unsettled later in the day if a Corotating Interaction
Region (CIR) arrives in the solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support is enhanced, but it
is expected to trend back toward predicted monthly values in
comming days. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux has been declining.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly enhanced
at low latitude and East Australia stations during Oct 2. Conditions
were mildly depressed at Perth and Learmonth prior to 10 UT on Oct 2.
The foF2 values are enhanced throughout the Australian region this
morning. This suggests the ionospheric propagation support will
be enhanced during Oct 3.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 79300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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