[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 2 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Oct 1. AR
2172 is located near the western limb and produced the largest
flare of the day, a C6.7 event peaking at 03:06 UT. The flare
forecast for Oct 2 is for low to moderate activity. There is
a decreasing chance of an M class flare during the next 48 hours.
Most of the visible active regions are stable or declining in
magnetic flare potential. SOHO LASCO images recorded a strong
CME leaving the eastern limb starting during 07 UT. This CME
is not Earthward directed. It may have been associated with returning
AR 2164 which is rotating toward the visible disk. The two prominent
filaments visible in the western hemisphere of GONG H alpha images
have remained stable. The solar wind speed has been fluctuating
in the approximate range 350 km/s to 420 km/s and it is presently
about 360 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been mostly in the
range 5 nT to 7 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating
mostly between -6 nT and +4 nT with intervals of negative bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 21231321
Cocos Island 5 11222220
Darwin 8 22231322
Townsville 7 11232222
Learmonth 9 21232331
Alice Springs 7 11231321
Norfolk Island 6 21231211
Culgoora 7 11231321
Gingin 7 21222321
Camden 7 12231321
Canberra 5 11231211
Launceston 10 22242322
Hobart 10 33231321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 20 22264331
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 19 53323334
Davis 13 33433221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3424 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 6 Quiet
04 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The IMF Bz component has been fluctuating mostly between
-6 nT and +4 nT with intervals of negative bias. Geomagnetic
conditions were unsettled during Oct 1. The 3-day outlook is
for mostly quiet conditions with unsettled intervals. Conditions
will be more active at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to remain enhanced, especially in equatorial and tropical regions,
during Oct 2. The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is declining, suggesting
a softening of ionospheric propagation support in comming days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly enhanced
to strongly enhanced at low latitude stations during Oct 1. Conditions
were enhanced up to 71% during 07 UT at Niue, and up to 44% during
12 UT at Cocos Island. Conditions were mildly depressed at Sydney,
Canberra and Hobart prior to 10 UT. This may have been a mild
negative storm effect associated with the ongoing geomagnetic
activity at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 76500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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