[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 14 issued 2337 UT on 30 Sep 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 1 09:37:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Sep 30. AR
2173 produced the largest flare of the day, a C2.4 event peaking
at 04:44 UT. Solar flare activity has been trending downward,
but the magnetic complexity of several of the 10 named Active
Regions on the visible disk still suggests an M class flare is
possible during Oct 1-2. AR 2173 and 2175 are approaching the
western limb. The two prominent filaments visible in GONG H alpha
images are rotating out of the geoeffective zone. AR 2177 is
rotating toward the solar meridian. The 3-day outlook is for
moderate solar activity declining toward low activity. There
are no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed has been
in the approximate range 350 km/s to 400 km/s and is presently
about 400 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF has been mostly in the
range 5 nT to 8 nT, and the Bz component has been fluctuating
between -7 nT and +5 nT including extended intervals of negative
bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Cocos Island 5 22122111
Darwin 7 22232212
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 7 22232122
Alice Springs 7 22232112
Norfolk Island 7 22232121
Culgoora 7 12232122
Gingin 8 32222222
Camden 8 22232222
Canberra 4 12122111
Launceston 11 23243222
Hobart 9 22233222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 24254311
Casey 14 43333213
Mawson 36 55523346
Davis 18 33543223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2213 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The IMF Bz component has been fluctuating between -7
nT and +5 nT with extended intervals of negative bias. Geomagnetic
conditions have been unsettled since about 3 UT on Sep 30. Further
unsettled intervals are likely today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to remain enhanced, especially at equatorial and tropical regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Oct 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly enhanced
at mid latitude locations, and enhanced to strongly enhanced
at low latitude locations during Sep 30. Conditions were enhanced
up to 87% during 12 UT at Darwin, up to 74% during 06 UT at Niue,
and up to 42% during 13 UT at Cocos Island. Conditions are expected
to remain enhanced during the next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 45800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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