[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 4 09:30:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Oct 3. AR
2172 and AR 2173 produced six C class flares. AR 2173 produced
the largest flare of the day, a C9.0 event peaking at 06:48 UT.
Because these regions are rotating around the western limb, and
the remaining regions are fairly stable, flare activity is expected
to be low during the next 48 hours. SOHO LASCO images confirm
that AR 2173 launched an intense CME toward the SE in association
with the M7.3 flare peaking at 19:02 UT on Oct 2. This CME will
not impact Earth. The minor CMEs launched toward the East at
04 UT and toward the SE at 14 UT on Oct 2 will not impact Earth.
The two major dark filaments previously visible in GONG H alpha
images are now rotating around the western limb. The solar wind
speed decreased from about 390 km/s to 330 km/s during Oct 3.
The magnitude of the IMF has been mostly in the range 3 nT to
6 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating between -2 nT
and +4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 12101201
Cocos Island 2 12100200
Darwin 4 12101212
Townsville 3 11101211
Learmonth 3 12101202
Alice Springs 2 11101201
Norfolk Island 1 11000100
Culgoora 2 12100201
Gingin 3 11101211
Camden 2 12100201
Canberra 1 01100100
Launceston 4 22201201
Hobart 3 12200201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01100100
Casey 8 34310201
Mawson 8 42211122
Davis 6 23311110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 6 1221 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 5 Quiet
05 Oct 5 Quiet
06 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Oct 3 and they
are expected to remain quiet today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced on Oct
3, and it is expected to remain enhanced today. The propagation
support is expected to trend back toward predicted monthly values
in coming days due to the gradual decline of the 10.7 cm solar
radio flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced up
to 60% at Cocos Island during 13-14 UT on Oct 3. Conditions were
enhanced at all East Australia stations during most of Oct 3.
Conditions were mildly depressed at Perth and Learmonth prior
to about 07 UT, and thereafter normal or slightly enhanced.
Conditions are expected to be enhanced throughout the Australian
region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 71000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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