[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 27 10:30:38 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
four C-class flares, the largest a C2 from region 2217 (S19E31).
Region 2219 (N04W06) grew in area. The solar wind speed declined
to around 300 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly southward,
to around -5 nT. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days,
with a chance of M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Cocos Island 2 -2111000
Darwin 3 21112002
Townsville 3 21112011
Learmonth 3 21112001
Alice Springs 2 11112001
Norfolk Island 1 11111000
Culgoora 2 11112001
Gingin 3 21122001
Camden 2 11112001
Canberra 1 10011000
Launceston 2 11112001
Hobart 2 11112001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 11023000
Casey 9 34322001
Mawson 9 23223123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 57 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 7 Quiet
28 Nov 5 Quiet
29 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian
region for the last 24 hours, with unsettled to active periods
in the Antarctic. Some unsettled periods are possible on 27 Nov,
returning to quiet conditions for 28-29 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts over
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 140 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Enhanced
MUFs are expected to continue over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 70600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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