[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 26 10:30:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 155/109 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
two C1 flares. An observed CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.
The solar wind speed varied mostly between 350 and 400 km/s,
with the IMF BZ component staying in the range -6 to +4 nT, but
mostly southwards. Low solar activity is expected for the next
3 days, with a chance of M-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 10111121
Cocos Island 1 00011111
Darwin 4 11111122
Townsville 4 11111122
Learmonth 2 10011111
Alice Springs 2 11101111
Norfolk Island 2 10000022
Culgoora 4 30110121
Gingin 2 10111111
Camden 3 10111121
Canberra 1 00100021
Launceston 4 11211121
Hobart 3 10211121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 00122111
Casey 13 34423212
Mawson 12 32233323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 7 Quiet
27 Nov 7 Quiet
28 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian
region for the last 24 hours, with unsettled to active periods
in the Antarctic. Some unsettled periods are possible on 26-27
Nov, returning to quiet conditions on 28-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts over
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Enhanced
MUFs are expected to continue over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 72900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list