[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 14 issued 2329 UT on 24 Nov 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 25 10:29:49 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from active regions 2216 (S11E24) and 2217 (S18E66),
the largest being a C4 from the latter at 24/1104 UT. A small
filament was observed lifting from the NW quadrant, starting
24/0126 UT, but appears to be heading above the ecliptic. The
solar wind speed is around 350 km/s and the IMF BZ component,
while mostly southward to around -6 nT until about 20 UT, is
now neutral. Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days,
with a chance of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21112221
Cocos Island 2 21100210
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 5 12112221
Learmonth 5 21112212
Alice Springs 4 11112212
Norfolk Island 5 21112222
Culgoora 4 1-112221
Gingin 6 22112311
Camden 5 12212221
Canberra 3 11102211
Launceston 7 22213222
Hobart 6 22213211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 21114311
Casey 23 4531----
Mawson 17 44223433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2123 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 5 Quiet
26 Nov 7 Quiet
27 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian
region for the last 24 hours, with brief active to minor storm
periods in the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for 25-Nov, with some unsettled periods possible on 26-27 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts over
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 130 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Enhanced
MUFs are expected to continue over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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