[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 24 10:30:41 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 173/127
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 23 November.
The largest flare was a C3.6 at 1053UT from active region 2217
(S19E68). Expect C-class flares with a possible M-class flare
and slight chance for an X class flare over the next three days.
The solar wind ranged between 350 to 450 over the last 24 hours.
Expect the solar wind to remain in this range over the next 24
hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
varied between +6/-7 nT over the last 24 hours. LASCO C2 imagery
showed a CME off the east limb first observed at 23/1636UT, not
Earthward directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22233232
Cocos Island 6 12222221
Darwin 9 22233222
Townsville 9 22233132
Learmonth 8 21233222
Alice Springs 9 22233222
Norfolk Island 7 22232122
Culgoora 10 22233232
Gingin 11 22233233
Camden 10 22233232
Canberra 6 12232121
Launceston 13 23343232
Hobart 12 23333232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 18 12255421
Casey 30 66433223
Mawson 23 34334354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 46 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2122 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov 6 Quiet
26 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 23 November, with isolated cases of Active conditions
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail today,
24 November, followed by Quiet conditions on 25-26 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs over the next three
days in the Australian region with possible short periods of
fadeouts during local day associated with M-class or greater
flares. Sporadic E observed at Brisbane station during the UT
day, 23 November. Isolated cases also noted at other Australian
stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 63100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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