[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 28 10:30:27 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 2209 (west limb), 2216 (S13W25) and
several from region 2222 (S21E59), the largest a C8 peaking at
27/0047 UT. Region 2222 grew strongly. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. The solar wind speed rose to peak at 430 km/s
before declining to around 360 km/s. The IMF BZ component varied
between -8 and +10 nT. Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 13312222
Cocos Island 6 13211122
Darwin 9 23312223
Townsville 8 23312222
Learmonth 7 23212212
Alice Springs 7 13212222
Norfolk Island 7 13302222
Culgoora 8 13312222
Gingin 7 23212222
Camden 8 13312222
Canberra 6 03202222
Launceston 11 24312322
Hobart 9 14302222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 23212211
Casey 25 45543233
Mawson 15 34323333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 65 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1011 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov 5 Quiet
30 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over
the last 24 hours were mostly quiet, with an unsettled period
03-09 UT, reaching active levels in Tasmania and minor storm
levels in Antarctica. Further unsettled conditions could occur
during 28-Nov if the IMF Bz turns strongly southward. Quiet conditions
are expected for 29-30 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with nighttime enhancements at
Cocus and Niue Islands. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 41100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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