[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 21 10:30:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 20 November.
The largest flare was a C7.6 at 0641UT from active region 2216
(S12E67). Expect C-class flares with possible M-class flares
and a slight chance for an X-class flare over the next three
days. The solar wind ranged between 425 to 375 over the last
24 hours. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range over
the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field varied between +5/-6 nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 21231232
Cocos Island 5 11121131
Darwin 8 21232232
Townsville 9 32231232
Learmonth 8 22131232
Alice Springs 8 21231232
Norfolk Island 5 21220131
Culgoora 7 11231231
Gingin 9 21232332
Camden 8 21232231
Canberra 4 11121221
Launceston 10 22232332
Hobart 10 22232332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 14 12343431
Casey 17 44432233
Mawson 27 54333362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 42 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 20 November with isolated cases of Active conditions
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over
the next three days
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced
conditions over the next three days in the Australian region
with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day associated
with M-class or greater flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 66300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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