[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 22 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 21 November.
The largest flare was a C1.9 at 0445UT from active region 2209
(S15w30). Expect C-class flares with a possible M-class flare
and slight chance for an X class flare over the next three days.
The solar wind ranged between 360 to 440 over the last 24 hours.
Expect the solar wind to remain in this range over the next 24
hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
varied between +/-7 nT over the last 24 hours. LASCO C2 imagery
showed a CME on the Northeast limb beginning at 1524UT, however
is not Earthward directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 32232221
Cocos Island 6 22121231
Darwin 10 33232222
Townsville 11 33233222
Learmonth 7 22132221
Alice Springs 9 33232221
Norfolk Island 6 22222221
Culgoora 8 32232221
Gingin 12 32233332
Camden 11 33233222
Canberra 7 22232121
Launceston 14 33343232
Hobart 13 32343231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 22 23264431
Casey 28 56542222
Mawson 28 65334333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3223 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 21 November with isolated cases of Active conditions
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over
the next three days
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced
conditions over the next three days in the Australian region
with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day associated
with M-class or greater flares. Cases of sporadic E observed
in the Nuie, Norfolk Island, and the Australian region during
the UT day, 21 November, particularly between 06 and 13 UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 62900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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