[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 20 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 19 November.
The largest flare was a C2.6 at 2150UT from active region 2209
(S13W06). Active region 2209 is expected to produce M/C-class
flares over the UT day, 20 November, with a slight chance of
an X-class flare. The solar wind decreased from 440 to 400 km/s
over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain around 400km/s
range for the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21222121
Cocos Island 4 21122120
Darwin 8 41222122
Townsville 5 21222121
Learmonth 4 20122112
Alice Springs 4 20222111
Norfolk Island 4 20112121
Culgoora 5 20222121
Gingin 7 20223222
Camden 5 21222121
Canberra 3 10212011
Launceston 7 21223122
Hobart 7 21223122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 10123211
Casey 19 45433222
Mawson 23 53333353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 72 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1223 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 6 Quiet
21 Nov 6 Quiet
22 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region
over the UT day, 19 November with isolated cases of Unsettled
conditions. Isolated cases of Active conditions in the Antarctic
region otherwise Quiet to Unsettled. Expect these conditions
to prevail over the next three days
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov 150 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 17
November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Expect near predicted
monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced conditions over the next three
days in the Australian region with possible short periods of
fadeouts during local day associated with M-class or greater
flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 70800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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