[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 19 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 18 November.
The largest flare was a C1.8 at 0809UT from active region 2209
(S13E11). A CME first observed by SOHO LASCO C2 imagery on the
north east limb at 18/0600UT is not Earthward directed. Active
region 2209 is expected to produce M/C-class flares over the
UT day, 19 November, with a slight to moderate chance of an X-class
flare. The solar wind decreased from 500 to 410 km/s over the
last 24 hours and is expected to remain around 400km/s range
or slightly above for the next 24 hours. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT over
the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22123311
Cocos Island 5 22123200
Darwin 7 22123311
Townsville 9 32223311
Learmonth 6 22123300
Alice Springs 7 22123301
Norfolk Island 5 22122211
Culgoora 7 22223211
Gingin 10 32124311
Camden 7 22223211
Canberra 5 22113200
Launceston 12 33224312
Hobart 9 32223311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 23244311
Casey 17 45423212
Mawson 19 54334321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 65 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2002 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 18 November, with isolated cases of Active conditions
at high latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over the
next three days
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 117 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 117 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov 117 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 17
November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Expect near predicted
monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced conditions over the next three
days in the Australian region with possible short periods of
fadeouts during local day associated with M-class or greater
flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 91100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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