[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 18 10:30:41 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 17 November.
The largest flare was a C6.5 at 0907UT from active region 2205
(N15) rotating around the west limb out of view. No significant
earthward directed CME has been observed by the time of this
report. Active region 2209 (S14E17) is expected to produce M/C-class
flares over the UT day, 18 November, with a slight to moderate
chance of an X-class flare. The solar wind ranged from 440 to
500 km/s and is expected to remain in this range for the next
24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
varied between +5/-6 nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 11112332
Cocos Island 7 11122331
Darwin 8 11112333
Townsville 7 11212332
Learmonth 6 11112322
Alice Springs 6 10112332
Norfolk Island 3 01112121
Culgoora 6 11112232
Gingin 9 11122432
Camden 6 21112232
Canberra 4 00112222
Launceston 10 11223333
Hobart 7 11122332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 11133321
Casey 22 45433342
Mawson 29 44433463
Davis 28 35533453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 54 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20 4433 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 17 November, with isolated cases of Active conditions
at high latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over the
next three days
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 17
November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Expect near predicted
monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced conditions over the next three
days with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day
associated with M-class or greater flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 596 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 334000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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