[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 17 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 1748UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
2209(S15E31) produced an M5.7 flare that peaked at 1748UT. No
significant earthward directed CME has been observed by the time
of this report. As anticipated, solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from around 630 km/s to 500 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed negative up to -8nT during
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels
with the possibility of up to X class activity during the next
three days. Solar wind stream is expected to gradually weaken
over the next two days as the coronal hole effects diminishes
further.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
with some Active periods
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 32333322
Cocos Island 6 22222211
Darwin 11 32332322
Townsville 12 32333232
Learmonth 9 32233212
Alice Springs 12 23333322
Norfolk Island 9 22232232
Culgoora 13 23333332
Gingin 12 32333322
Camden 14 33333332
Canberra 8 222332-1
Launceston 17 33344332
Hobart 16 33344322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 34 35465521
Casey 28 46533333
Mawson 46 55644536
Davis 54 46754535
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 46 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 2333 3024
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 12 Unsettled
18 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied between Quiet and Unsettled
levels with some Active periods over the last 24 hours. Due to
an expected gradual weakening of the coronal hole effect, geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at mostly Unsettled on 17, Quiet to
Unsettled on 18 and Quiet levels on 19 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF enhancements on low latitudes and
minor to mild MUF depressions on mid latitudes were observed
today. Due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels
minor to mild MUF depressions may be observed on mid and high
latitudes on 17 November. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on 18 and 19 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
18 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF enhancements on low latitudes and
minor to mild MUF depressions on mid latitudes were observed
today. Due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels
minor to mild MUF depressions may be observed across Aus/NZ regions
on 17 November. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in
this region on 18 and 19 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list