[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 16 10:30:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1203UT possible lower European
M3.7 2046UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity have been observed
during the last 24 hours. Region 2209(S13E63) produced two M3
flares, the largest event being an M3.7 that peaked at 2046UT.
No significant earthward directed CME has been observed by the
time of this report. Solar wind speed varied between around 450
km/s and 600 km/s during the UT day today, showing an increasing
trend towards the end of the day. The Bz component of IMF mostly
stayed negative up to -7nT during this period. Solar activity
is expected to stay at moderate levels with the possibility of
up to X class activity during the next three days. As expected,
solar wind stream seems to have started gaining strength due
to the coronal hole effect. This effect is expected to keep the
solar wind stream stronger over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22233123
Cocos Island 8 22223123
Darwin 12 32233233
Townsville 13 2-334133
Learmonth 8 22223123
Alice Springs 9 22233123
Norfolk Island 7 22223122
Culgoora 10 23233123
Gingin 12 22234124
Camden 10 23233123
Canberra 8 12233023
Launceston 16 33344133
Hobart 11 23333123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 27 23655123
Casey 26 56333124
Mawson 31 44433356
Davis 41 34663246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 80 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3321 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Nov 12 Unsettled
18 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied between Quiet and Unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions
on 16 November, mostly Unsettled on 17 November and Quiet to
Unsettled conditions on 18 November may be expected. This rise
in the activity levels is expected to happen due to the effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels, minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected
on 16 November and minor depressions on 17 November. HF conditions
are expected to return to mostly normal on 18 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
17 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
18 Nov 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels, minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected
on 16 November and minor depressions on 17 November. HF conditions
are expected to return to mostly normal on 18 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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