[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 15 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours.
Today's largest flare was a C5.4 event from region 2209(S15E56)
at 0748UT. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from around
450 km/s to 550 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component
of IMF mostly stayed close to the normal value showing variations
between +/-7 nT at times during this period. Solar activity is
expected to stay at moderate levels with the possibility of up
to X class activity during the next three days. Solar wind stream
may gain strength from late on 15 November or early 16 November
due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 33422222
Cocos Island 9 23412221
Darwin 12 33422223
Townsville 12 33423222
Learmonth 8 23312222
Alice Springs 10 23422222
Norfolk Island 10 33412122
Culgoora 11 33422222
Gingin 11 33323222
Camden 12 33423222
Canberra 9 23412122
Launceston 14 34423222
Hobart 12 33423222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 32323121
Casey 41 57633233
Mawson 32 45424364
Davis 30 45434362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 77 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied between Quiet and Active
levels over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
on 15 November, Unsettled to Active on 16 November and mostly
Unsettled on 17 November may be expected. This rise in the activity
levels is expected to happen due to the expected effect of a
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. In the IPS
magnetometer data for 14 Nov, a weak (11nT) impulse was observed
at 0550UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for most parts of the UT day 15 November and possibly
on 17 November. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected
late on 15 November and throughout the day on 16 November due
to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
Minor MUF depressions on high latitudes are also possible on
17 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
17 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for most parts of the UT day 15 November and possibly
on 17 November in the Aus/NZ regions. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be expected late on 15 November and throughout the day on
16 November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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