[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 14 10:30:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours.
Today's largest flare was a C8 event from region 2209(N14W16)
at 06076UT. Solar wind speed remained enhanced between around
460 km/s and 500 km/s during most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed positive around +6 nT during
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels
for the next three days with the possibility of up to X class
activity during the next three days. Solar wind stream may gain
strength from late on 15 November or early 16 November due to
an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole. Region 2192 (S15) which previously produced X-flare(s)
is due to return around 13 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21111012
Cocos Island 6 41111111
Darwin 5 22121122
Townsville 4 21121112
Learmonth 4 21121012
Alice Springs 3 21111012
Norfolk Island 2 11011012
Culgoora 3 21111021
Gingin 4 21121022
Camden 4 22111021
Canberra 1 --1100-1
Launceston 5 22111122
Hobart 3 22111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 12010011
Casey 20 45442123
Mawson 15 35333122
Davis 13 34333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 59 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3121 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 4 Quiet
15 Nov 4 Quiet
16 Nov 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected
on 14 and most parts of 15 November. Geomagnetic activity my
increase to Unsettled and possibly Active levels from late on
15 November or early on 16 November due to an expected effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected on 14 and most parts of 15 November. Minor to mild
MUF depressions may be expected late on 15 November and throughout
the day on 16 November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected on 14 and most parts of 15 November in the Aus/NZ
regions. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected late on
15 November and throughout the day on 16 November due to an expected
rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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