[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 13 10:30:27 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours.
Today's largest flare was a C5 event from region 2205(N14W16)
at 1046UT. Solar wind speed remained enhanced between around
500 km/s and 600 km/s during most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed positive around +7 nT during
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels
for the next three days with the possibility of M-class activity
on 13 November and the possibility of X class activity on 14
and 15 November. Region 2192 (S15) which previously produced
X-flare(s) is due to return around 13 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 22210022
Cocos Island 3 22110011
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 5 22210122
Learmonth 4 22211012
Alice Springs 4 22210012
Norfolk Island 3 12110012
Culgoora 4 22210022
Gingin 4 22210022
Camden 5 22210122
Canberra 2 22100011
Launceston 7 33210122
Hobart 6 33210012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 22210011
Casey 36 37642123
Mawson 19 44422125
Davis 17 45412033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 63 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2111 1224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 4 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov 4 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov 4 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels with
some Unsettled periods for the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days in the Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 88400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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