[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 6 10:30:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7/-- 0947UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity is a High levels with the greatest flare
over the last 24 hours being an M7 from region 2205(N15E66) peaking
at 0947UT. This region also produced an M3 class flare peaking
at 1944UT and several C class flares. No CMEs with geoeffective
potential were observed. The solar wind speed steadily increased
over the day and is now around 550 km/s. The IMF Bt dropeed from
a peak of 12nT to just over 5nT. Several southward excursions
below -5nT occurred in Bz. Solar activity is expected to be moderate
to high for the next 3 days as region 2205 retains the potential
for M or X class flares. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 33333222
Cocos Island 8 33222211
Darwin 14 43333223
Townsville 14 33333233
Learmonth 11 33323222
Alice Springs 12 33333222
Norfolk Island 10 33332122
Culgoora 13 33333232
Gingin 13 42324222
Camden 13 33333232
Canberra 8 23322122
Launceston 15 33334233
Hobart 12 33333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 17 33354222
Casey 35 56643233
Mawson 24 34543225
Davis 34 3455----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 88 (Minor storm)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 81 (Minor storm)
Canberra 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 1124 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 12 Unsettled
07 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are unsettled due to elevated solar
wind speed and magnetic field strength. These conditions are
expected to continue for the next 3 days, with some chance of
isolated active periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5
November and is current for 6-8 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies
were near predicted monthly values with enhancements observed
during local night in most regions. Good conditions for HF radio
propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A HF radion communications
warning has been issued for the next 3 days due to the probability
of HF fadeouts from expected high levels of xray flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 65700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list