[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 7 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 0346UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity is at High levels with 3 M class flares
occurring over the last 24 hours the greatest being an M5. All
were produced by region 2205(N16E56) which also produced C class
flares. Two CMEs were observed directed towards the north east
but neither is expected to be geoeffective. An M2 class flare
is just concluding at time of writing and any CME from this cannot
yet be characterised. Further information will be given in tomorrow's
report if relevant. The solar wind speed has reduced to under
500 km/s and the Bt to the typical level of around 5nT. Further
M and possibly X class flare can be expected from region 2205
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Cocos Island 3 22111101
Darwin 8 32212123
Townsville 7 23212122
Learmonth 5 22112112
Alice Springs 5 12212112
Norfolk Island 4 22112012
Culgoora 5 22212112
Gingin 6 22212113
Camden 6 23212112
Canberra 3 12112002
Launceston 8 23213113
Hobart 6 23212012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 12204012
Casey 19 35532123
Mawson 17 34323215
Davis 17 34443123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 74 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 3323 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 5 Quiet
08 Nov 5 Quiet
09 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions with some Unsettled
periods are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5
November and is current for 6-8 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies
were near predicted monthly values. Good conditions for HF radio
propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A HF radio communications
warning has been issued for the next 3 days due to the probability
of HF fadeouts from expected high levels of xray flare activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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