[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 5 10:30:48 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/-- 03/2240UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels. The most significant
x-ray flare over the past 24 hours was an M2 flare from newly
numbered region 2205(N14E85) which has produced several M flares
over the last few days as it rotates onto the visible Sun. Numerous
C class flare were also observed from this region. Several CMEs
were observed but none are expected to be geoeffective. The total
field strength of the solar wind increased to over 10nT over
the day with several southward excursions of up to -10nT. Flare
activity is expected to remain at Moderate levels with the chance
of High (greater than M5 flares) over the next few days, entirely
due to region 2205. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually
increase over the next few days as a coronal hole high speed
wind stream comes into effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 16 22334343
Cocos Island 15 12334343
Darwin 14 22334333
Townsville 16 22334343
Learmonth 17 21334344
Alice Springs 14 22334333
Norfolk Island 12 11334233
Culgoora 15 21334343
Gingin 24 11345544
Camden 16 22334343
Canberra 12 11333333
Launceston 20 22344444
Hobart 17 12344433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 23 11455433
Casey 21 44433244
Mawson 36 22345466
Davis 22 32543344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 97 (Minor storm)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: In the IPS magnetometer data for 04 Nov, a weak (13nT)
impulse was observed at 1209UT. This produced a period of Active
conditions amongst otherwise Unsettled levels of activity. This
corresponded to an unexpected increase in the total field strength
of the interplanetary magnetic field with several southward excursions.
The Bt remains elevated and Unsettled conditions with a chance
of isolated Active periods can be expected for the next day or
two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with enhancements observed during local night in most
regions. Good conditions for HF radio propagation are expected
for the next 3 days with rising levels of ionising EUV flux and
no significant geomagnetic disturbance expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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