[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 4 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1155UT possible lower European
M6.5 2241UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels. Two M class flares,
and M2 and an M6, were produced from a region rotating around
the eastern limb. No geoeffective CMEs were observed, however
the relevant data is currently patchy. A type II radio burst
was seen in conjunction with the M6 flare. Region 2201(S05E23)
produced several C class flares, the greatest a C4 peaking at
0352UT. A type II radio burst was seen in conjunction with this
event. No CME of significance appears to have been produced but
SOHO/LASCO data is patchy around the relevant period. More data
should be available later and if relevant will be noted in tomorrow's
report. The solar wind speed reduced from around 500 km/s to
400 km/s over the day as the influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream abates. The greater then 10 MeV proton flux has
reduced to well below the event threshold.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 31210012
Cocos Island 2 21110002
Darwin 7 31221113
Townsville 7 32221113
Learmonth 4 31110003
Alice Springs 5 31210013
Norfolk Island 4 31110012
Culgoora 4 31110012
Gingin 4 30110003
Camden 5 32210012
Canberra 2 21110002
Launceston 5 32211012
Hobart 3 22210002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 21110001
Casey 14 44432112
Mawson 7 23221013
Davis 9 33332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 71 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1100 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 5 Quiet
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet and these conditions
are expected to persist for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2145UT 02/11, Ended at 2210UT 02/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with some enhancements observed. Good conditions for HF
radio propagation are expected for the next 3 days with rising
levels of ionising EUV flux and no significant geomagnetic disturbance
expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 81300 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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