[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 14 issued 2338 UT on 02 Nov 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 3 10:38:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2201 (S05E23) was the source of a few B-class and a C-class event,
the largest confirmed so far being a C3.5 flare at 1703UT. GONG
network H-alpha imagery indicates a C9.4 event at 2105UT originated
from the same vicinity of region 2201. Solar wind speed remained
steady at ~500km/s over the UT day. Proton flux levels have increased
slightly, crossing the 10MeV threshold level within the last
2 hours. Bz again was predominantly northward, with southward
periods between 10UT-17UT of maximum -4nT. Solar wind speed is
expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next three days
with the chance of an M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22123331
Cocos Island 7 22122330
Darwin - --------
Townsville 11 22123432
Learmonth 9 21123332
Alice Springs 9 21123332
Norfolk Island 8 22123322
Culgoora 8 22123321
Gingin 8 21023332
Camden 7 21123321
Canberra 6 11013321
Launceston 11 22123432
Hobart 8 22123321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 22025210
Casey 13 43322332
Mawson 15 33133441
Davis 14 33243331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1122 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 12 Unsettled
04 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours with an isolated Active period for Southern AUS/NZ regions
between 15UT-18UT. Unsettled conditions with possible Active
periods are expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions forecast for 04Nov-05Nov. In the IPS magnetometer
data for 02 Nov, a weak (7nT) impulse was observed at 1754UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 03 11 2014 0845UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies were near predicted monthly
values for all stations over the UT day with notable enhanced
ionospheric support for Equatorial regions regions during local
day and night. Variable ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
observed over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with possible depressed periods for Southern
AUS/NZ regions due to geomagnetic activity. Reduced ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions due to minor PCA event.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 227000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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