[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 14 issued 2349 UT on 01 Nov 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 2 10:49:37 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2201 (S05E39) was the source of numerous c-class events, the
largest being a C7.2 flare at 1646UT. A notable filament eruption
on the SE limb was observed in the Learmonth GONG H-alpha imagery
beginning at 0422UT. Given its position (and non-halo CME status
in LASCO C2 imagery from 0512UT onwards) the associated CME is
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed peaked at 580km/s
at ~08UT and is currently ~500km/s. Proton flux levels have increased
in the last 12 hours to be just below the >10MeV threshold. Bz
again was predominantly northward with an isolated maximum southward
value of -8nT. A notable step increase in the total magnetic
field value (Bt) at ~07UT reaching a maximum of 15nT, gradually
declining to be 8nT at the time of this report. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain slightly elevated with the chance of an
additional contribution from a small coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to be Low for the next three days. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 01/0635UT, which can
be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11322121
Cocos Island 5 11322111
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 12322121
Learmonth 5 11222212
Alice Springs 6 21322121
Norfolk Island 5 11222112
Culgoora 6 11322121
Gingin 6 21222212
Camden 6 11322121
Canberra 3 10212020
Launceston 8 22322132
Hobart 6 12322121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 11212111
Casey 29 45653222
Mawson 14 33434212
Davis 7 34000022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1121 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours
with possible Active periods. Mostly Quiet conditions for 03Nov-04Nov
with possible Unsettled periods. In the IPS magnetometer data
for 01 Nov, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 0706UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 83
Dec 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies were near predicted monthly
values for all stations over the UT day with notable enhanced
ionospheric support for Northern AUS regions regions during local
day and during local night for Equatorial regions. Variable ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions observed over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible
depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions due
to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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