[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 14 issued 2349 UT on 31 Oct 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 1 10:49:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
event being a C2.3 flare from region 2201 (S05E53) at 0825UT.
Solar wind speed remained slightly above 400km/s over the majority
of the UT day. Bz was predominantly northward, ranging between
+10nT and -8nT over the UT day. A narrow northern hemisphere
located coronal hole may influence the solar wind stream in the
next 48 hours having moved into geoeffective position. The average
solar x-ray flux level has gradually declined over the last 48
hours since large active region 2192 rotated off of the visible.
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 12211122
Cocos Island 3 12111111
Darwin - --------
Townsville 7 22222132
Learmonth 4 11111122
Alice Springs 5 12211122
Norfolk Island 4 12111122
Culgoora 5 12211122
Gingin 7 3-221222
Camden 6 -3211122
Canberra 3 12111021
Launceston 8 23212232
Hobart 6 13212122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 03201021
Casey 30 46642123
Mawson 19 34323154
Davis 18 34433143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for 01Nov and mostly Quiet conditions
for 02Nov-03Nov with possible Unsettled periods and isolated
Active periods at high latitudes due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies were near predicted monthly
values for all stations over the UT day with notable enhanced
ionospheric support for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions
during local day and during local night for Equatorial regions.
Extended periods of degraded ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions observed over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 52000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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