[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 14 issued 2344 UT on 22 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 23 09:44:38 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with two
C-Class events, the greatest a C6 flare from Region 2072(S18W19)
at 0310UT. Currently five active regions on the disc and AR2071(S12E42)
is the largest (150>mils), showed growth overnight but has been
quiet over the period. All other regions appear relatively stable.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 22 May in the available
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. Solar activity is expected
to be Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance of an isolated
low M-class flare. The solar wind speed was steady ~300 km/s
until 09UT then gradually increased to be ~400 km/s at the time
of this report. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT
but went negative up to -9nT since 09UT, briefly turned northwards
~~18UT and then southwards again and is continuing south at 23UT.
Light solar wind speeds are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet with one
isolated Unsettled period.
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11101312
Cocos Island 2 11000211
Darwin 4 21101212
Townsville 5 21111312
Learmonth 5 11102322
Alice Springs 4 11101312
Norfolk Island 2 11001211
Culgoora 4 11101312
Gingin 5 11102322
Camden 4 11001312
Canberra 3 11001311
Launceston 6 21102322
Hobart 4 11001312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 3 00002311
Casey 5 22111212
Mawson 12 42211234
Davis 6 12321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 5 Quiet
25 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet with an isolated Unsettled
period ~1500UT. This was seen in association with a southward
turning of the interplanetary magnetic field probably the result
of a solar sector boundary crossing. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected on 23-May. The field should return to mostly Quiet
conditions on the following two days in the absence of prolonged
IMF Bz southwards or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal with minor
MUF depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions during local
night. There was strong Spread-F in Darwin ionograms last night.
Expect similar conditions next 24 hours with ionospheric support
weakening due to low solar 10.7cm irradiance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 26900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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