[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 22 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only minor C-class
flares occurring over the previous 24 hours, the greatest a C2.
Solar wind conditions are ambient with the speed below 350 km/s
and the IMF Bt less than 5nT. Low solar activity and ambient
solar wind conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01100001
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 0 00100000
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 1 01000011
Gingin 0 10100000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 1 --200000
Launceston 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11100001
Mawson 2 11100112
Davis 3 11200031
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 5 Quiet
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with
some chance of unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal with minor
MUF depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions during local
night. Expect similar conditions next three days with ionospheric
support weakening due to low solar 10.7cm irradiance. Minor disturbances
possible Antarctic region on days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 39400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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