[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 21 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: A C1 level flare was observed in AR2060 (S13W89) at
0148UT. A solar filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant
0154-0405UT. A weak NW directed CME was observed following the
filament eruption. It is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar wind
speed remains steady at around 350 km/s. The Bz component of
the IMF was mostly neutral +/- 3nT. Further analysis of the solar
filament/CME sequence observed 19/06UT indicates a small possibility
of minor disturbance around 23-24 May. Region 2051 (S9) which
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 20 May,
with some E limb activity now visible in EIT imagery.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01110000
Cocos Island 0 00110000
Darwin 1 01110001
Townsville 2 11110101
Learmonth 1 00220000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Norfolk Island 1 01110010
Culgoora 2 11110101
Gingin 1 01110000
Camden 1 01110000
Canberra 0 00110000
Launceston 1 11111000
Hobart 0 00110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 13221000
Mawson 6 22122113
Davis 4 12222100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 41 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1200 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 5 Quiet
22 May 5 Quiet
23 May 8 Quiet, chance minor disturbance
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes.
Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Expect Quiet
conditions days one and two. Possible minor disturbances day
three due to a weak coronal hole wind stream and slight chance
of a weak CME impact from the filament eruption/CME sequence
observed 19 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Briefly depressed by 15% 07-08UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal with minor
MUF depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions during local
night. Expect similar conditions next three days with ionospheric
support weakening due to low solar 10.7cm irradiance. Minor disturbances
possible Antarctic region day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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