[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 14 issued 2329 UT on 19 May 2014

Tue May 20 09:29:24 EST 2014

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 117/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/72             115/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 19 May and is expected 
to remain low during the next 48 hours. A C1 level flare was 
observed in AR 2071 (S11E80) after 2100UT. The prominent solar 
filament located in the NW quadrant slowly lifted from the coronal 
surface over the first few hours of the UT day. A slow N-directed 
CME, first visible in LASCO C3 imagery after 10UT, was probably 
associated with the solar filament lift-off. The CME was not 
Earth-directed. Solar wind speed was steady at around 350 km/s 
and the IMF Bz component fluctuated mildly +/-4nT over the UT 
day. Region 2051 (S9) which previously produced M-flare(s) is 
due to return around 20 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101101
      Cocos Island         4   33110000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   01201111
      Learmonth            2   11110101
      Alice Springs        1   01200001
      Norfolk Island       1   21100000
      Culgoora             1   01101101
      Gingin               2   11200101
      Camden               1   01101101
      Canberra             1   01101100
      Launceston           2   12101101
      Hobart               1   01101100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001100
      Casey                5   22311101
      Mawson              10   22111225
      Davis                3   1-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2200 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May     5    Quiet
21 May     5    Quiet
22 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 19 May and 
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours. No fast 
solar wind or CME is currently expected to arrive within the 
next 2 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 May    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Darwin enhanced to 40% 04-08, 15-18UT.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Perth enhanced 30% 17-21UT. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
21 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were near predicted monthly values at 
most Australian region stations during 19 May. Expect mostly 
normal HF conditions next few days. The 10.7 cm solar flux is 
trending mildly downward and the multiday outlook is for a softening 
of ionospheric support.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    55300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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