[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 19 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 18 May and is expected
to remain low during the next 48 hours. The largest flare of
18 May was a long duration (almost 3 hours) C3.8 event from AR
2056 peaking at 06:54 UT. AR 2056 was located on the western
limb and the associated narrow CME will not impact Earth. GONG
H alpha solar patrol telescopes show a dark filament (prominence)
located in the Northern Hemisphere, just west of the central
meridian. The filament appears stable at the time of this report.
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is presently trending downward,
decreasing from a local maximum of about 163 on 14 May to less
than 128 today. The solar wind speed remains light and steady
near 350 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was about 5 nT and the
Bz component fluctuated between about -4 and +4 nT for most of
18 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21100101
Cocos Island 3 20------
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 3 22100112
Learmonth 2 21100011
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 2 21100102
Gingin 1 11100101
Camden 2 21100101
Canberra 1 11000101
Launceston 2 22100101
Hobart 1 11000101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33201111
Mawson 9 33111124
Davis 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 5 Quiet
20 May 5 Quiet
21 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 18 May and
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours. No fast
solar wind or CME is currently expected to arrive within the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were near predicted monthly values at
most Australian region stations during 18 May. Conditions were
slightly depressed at Perth (station T=76), but more depressed
further north at Learmonth (station T=66), especially during
the night. Strong frequency spread F conditions occurred at Hobart
last night. The 10.7 cm solar flux is trending downward and the
multiday outlook is for a softening of ionospheric support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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