[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 18 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 17 May and is expected
to remain low today. The largest flare of the day was a C3.3
event from AR 2066 peaking at 02:39 UT. AR 2066 is located near
the central meridian. AR 2065 has rotated into the SE quadrant
but is presently stable. AR 2063 may produce more C class flares.
There is a slight chance of a moderate M class flare during the
next 48 hours. The two major CMEs during the previous 24 hours
were far side events. The solar wind speed remains light and
steady near 350 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was mostly less
than 6 nT and the Bz component fluctuated mostly between -2 and
+2 nT during 17 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Cocos Island 0 00000---
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12110011
Learmonth 0 10010000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00100000
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22210000
Mawson 4 31110111
Davis 5 32210121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1110 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 4 Quiet
19 May 5 Quiet
20 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet during 17 May
and are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were near predicted monthly values at
most Australian region stations during 17 May. They are expected
to remain near or slightly above predicted monthly values during
the next 48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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