[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 17 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low. There were 7 C class solar
X ray flares on the visible disk during the previous 24 hours.
The largest event was a C5.7 event from AR 2056 peaking at 07:04
UT on 16 May. AR 2056 and AR 2063 have a beta-gamma configuration
and will likely produce more C class flares. There is a decreasing
chance of a moderate M class flare during the next 48 hours.
There are presently no Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind
speed is presently light and steady near 350 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF remains about 6-7 nT and the Bz component has been
fluctuating between -6 and +6 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Cocos Island 1 10110000
Darwin 2 11201101
Townsville 4 12212111
Learmonth 2 11111110
Alice Springs 1 11101100
Norfolk Island 2 12001100
Culgoora 3 11102111
Gingin 2 11102110
Camden 3 11102111
Canberra 0 01001000
Launceston 2 12102100
Hobart 1 01002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00001100
Casey 4 22311000
Mawson 11 33211143
Davis 10 13312124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2110 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 5 Quiet
18 May 5 Quiet
19 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 16 May and
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were near or slightly above predicted
monthly values at most Australian region stations during 16 May.
They are expected to fluctuate near predicted monthly values
during the next 3 days. Conditions were enhanced at Cocos Island
during 02-16 UT. More day time enhancements are likely in the
Cocos Island region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 39100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list