[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 16 09:30:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Three C-class solar X-ray flares occurred during the
previous 24 hours. AR 2058 produced a C5.0 event with peak output
at 02:56 UT on 15 May. AR 2060 produced a C3.2 flare peaking
at 03:40 UT and AR 2063 produced a C3.2 flare peaking at 05:34
UT. There is a chance that one of these regions or AR 2056 will
produce an M class flare during the next 3 days. GONG Big Bear
H alpha observations recorded the rapid ejection of a large prominence
from the SE limb during 20 UT on 15 May. SOHO LASCO coronographs
currently show no clear evidence for any Earthward directed CMEs.
The solar wind speed is presently near 340 km/s. A modest enhancement
in solar wind speed may occur later today. The magnitude of the
IMF is about 6 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating between
-5 and +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 4 12210112
Learmonth 1 11110010
Alice Springs 1 11100011
Norfolk Island 1 01000011
Culgoora 1 11100011
Gingin 3 12200020
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 1 01100011
Hobart 0 01100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23320021
Mawson 5 22110132
Davis 10 11220053
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5 1101 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 May 6 Quiet
18 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 15 May. Intervals
of unsettled activity are expected if faster solar wind flows
arrive today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were near or slightly above predicted
monthly values at most Australian region stations during 15 May.
Conditions were enhanced by 5-30% during 00-13 UT at Cocos Island,
and depressed by 20-35% during 11-16 UT at Learmonth in Western
Australia.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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