[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 15 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Low
Flares: C class fares.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Eight C-class solar X-ray flares occurred during the
previous 24 hours. Newly formed Active Region (AR) 2063 produced
4 weak C class flares. This region has the potential for further
significant activity. The largest event of 14 May was a C8.3
flare peaking at 15:04 UT in association with AR 2056. This is
the same region responsible for the C6.8 event at 22:24 UT on
13 May. No CME was detected by the SOHO LASCO coronograph in
association with the C6.8 event. A partial halo CME was detected
leaving the NW limb starting at 05 UT on 14 May. This CME was
not associated with a flare or a Disappearing Solar Filament
(DSF) on the visible disk. It was likely a far side event. A
second strong CME was recorded leaving the East limb at 07 UT
and may be a signature of the DSF observed by the GONG Udaipur
H-alpha telescope during 05 to 07 UT. A Coronal Hole High Speed
Stream (CHHSS) is expected to impact Earth in the next 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is presently near 350 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF gradually increased to about 6 nT throughout the day,
and the Bz component has been fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11001000
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 21101102
Townsville 3 21101111
Learmonth 2 21101100
Alice Springs 1 11101001
Norfolk Island 1 11001000
Culgoora 1 11001101
Gingin 1 11001000
Camden 1 11001000
Canberra 0 00001000
Launceston 2 21002100
Hobart 1 11001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 4 23201101
Mawson 8 21001125
Davis 3 11101122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 14 May. A Coronal
Hole High Speed Stream (CHHSS) is expected to arrive today and
lead to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. There are presently
no Earthward directed CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagations conditions were enhanced by 10-50% during
02-13 UT at Cocos Island. They were also enhanced by 10-50% during
03-07 UT and 12-20 UT at Darwin. HF conditions were near predicted
monthly values at most East Australia stations, but depressed
by 10-40% during 11-22 UT at Perth and Learmonth.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 23500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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