[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 24 09:30:26 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only two minor
C-class flares occurring over the previous 24 hours. AR2071(S12E35),
the largest and most complex(beta-gamma/Dai) on the solar disk,
showed some regrowth overnight but has been quiet over the period.
All other regions are either stable or declining. Solar activity
is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with a chance of an
M-class flare. No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 23 May
in the available SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. The solar
wind speed was steady ~350 km/s then jumped to ~500 km/s at 0330UT.
The Bz component of IMF turned northwards early UT day, continued
north until ~1400UT then briefly turned southwards(up to -12nT).
The solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly elevated
next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 11 22201434
Cocos Island 9 22101334
Darwin 10 22201334
Townsville 12 32201434
Learmonth 19 32201545
Alice Springs 11 22201434
Norfolk Island 8 32100333
Culgoora 11 22201434
Gingin 18 32101545
Camden 11 22201434
Canberra 10 21101434
Launceston 14 32201444
Hobart 13 22201444
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 9 11100443
Casey 18 43300435
Mawson 48 64420467
Davis 39 54420665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2111 2433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
25 May 7 Quiet
26 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to Active levels at mid
and low latitudes late in the UT day of 23 May and up to Storm
levels at polar latitudes. This was due to enhanced merging with
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as it's north-south (Bz)
component stayed southward (-10nT) for 07 hours from ~14UT. The
IMF Bz returned to the usual +/-5nT range ~21UT so the geomagnetic
field should return to Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions over
24 May. No apparent Coronal Mass Ejections are inbound.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for the next 24 hours.
There is the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally near predicted monthly
values at most locations. Expect similar conditions next few
days with ionospheric support strengthening due to increased
solar 10.7cm irradiance. There is the slight chance for short-wave
fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 60700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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