[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 29 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1919UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate,
with an M2 flare from region 2017 (N10W20) at 28/1918UT. This
was accompanied by a type II radio sweep and a CME. Although
the available imagery is currently limited, this CME appears
to be directed above the ecliptic plane. An earlier CME, first
observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1652UT, is also directed away
from Earth. Solar activity over the next 3 days is expected to
be low to moderate. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed
varied between 380-490km/s, and the IMF BZ component between
+/-6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21113022
Cocos Island 4 12112021
Darwin 5 21113012
Townsville 6 21123022
Learmonth 7 21124022
Alice Springs 4 20113021
Norfolk Island 4 11112022
Culgoora 6 11--3122
Gingin 7 21113132
Camden 4 11113021
Canberra 4 11113021
Launceston 6 21123122
Hobart 5 11113022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 00014021
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 14 22223253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1113 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the
Australian region over the last 24 hours, with a brief unsettled
to active period after 12UT. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region
over the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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